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Bitcoin is an economic side show

by on19 February 2021

JP Morgan snarls

Bitcoin is an “economic side show” and a poor hedge against a decline in equity prices, according to JP Morgan.

While Bitcoin is doing rather well, its current prices are well above JP Morgan’s estimates of fair value and the mainstream adoption of bitcoin increases its correlation with cyclical assets, which reduces the benefits of diversifying into bitcoin.

In a press release the company said crypto assets continue to rank as the poorest hedge for major drawdowns in equities, with questionable diversification benefits at prices so far above production costs, while correlations with cyclical assets are rising as crypto ownership is mainstreamed.

Some of bitcoin’s supporters argue that the cryptocurrency is “digital” gold that can hedge against inflation and declines in the dollar. Although more rational heads who have lost fortunes on digital currency it is more of a daily lottery.

Based on that logic, bitcoin would need to rise to $146,000 in the long-term for its market capitalisation to equal total private-sector investment in gold via exchange-traded funds or bars and coins, according to JP Morgan.

Tesla’s chief executive Elon Musk said on Thursday that owning bitcoin was only a little better than holding cash. He also defended Tesla’s recent purchase of $1.5 billion of bitcoin, which re-ignited mainstream interest in the digital currency.

Last modified on 19 February 2021
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