The Senior manager of AMD Fab 36 factory in Dresden named Rolf Stephan has shared with us that AMD plans to have its 32nm in 2010. He didn’t comment in his presentation if he meant early or late, but you kind of know the answer to that.

Based on current execution AMD needs two years to transition from a process to process and since it just moved to 45nm in Q4 2008 it will probably be Q4 2010 before you see the first 32nm chips out of this fab. This is, of course, based on the fact that AMD can meet its schedules and stay on track without any delays.

This, in reality, means that the volume production of 32nm can start in very early 2011. When it comes to Intel, we should see the first 32nm processors in a year's time, in Q4 2009 with volume production in Q1 2010 with Westmere processors, and by the end of 2010 we should see Sandy Bridge, the new architecture again in 32nm. This means that both 32nm processors from Intel could launch before AMD is ready with its first 32nm chip.

This doesn’t really look great for AMD, as it's kind of clear who will keep the technology leadership for the time to come.