Could last up to six months
Thailand is struggling to contain floodwaters from inundating the country’s low lands, including the capital Bangkok, the immense scale of the disaster is already starting to have an effect on industrial output.
Although the flooding is expected to subside within weeks, the cleanup effort will continue long after the water recedes. Worse, it will take hard drive makers months before they start to catch up on missed orders and restore normal supply timetables.
IDC and iSuppli believe the floods will result in a 25 percent to 28 percent overall market shortage over the next six months. Western Digital seems to be the hardest hit hard drive maker. IDC estimates that up to 75 percent of the company’s production will temporarily shut down.
Overall, Q4 hard drive shipments are expected to decline to 125 million from 173 million in Q3. For the average consumer this translates into higher prices and IDC expects hard drive prices to go up by about 10 percent in Q4. However, as we reported yesterday, prices have shot up well beyond 10 percent.
In addition, iSuppli believes the issue could also affect notebook production in early 2012.