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Wednesday, 03 August 2011 10:57

Analyst clarifies his Nvidia worries

Written by Nick Farell
nvidia

Gill downgraded the outfit as its shares rose
Needham analyst Rajvindra Gill has been clarifying why he was so hard on Nvidia after there was a jump in the company share price.

Gill downgraded the company even as it had a big jump in graphics processing unit (GPU) market share versus AMD.
However Gill said that he is concerned about desktop graphics sales.

Mercury research shows that total desktop discrete graphics sales declined by 15 per cent. While Nvidia’s share of the market was roughly unchanged in the quarter, it must have been losing shedloads. He is also concerned that the gap between Intel’s integrated graphics on the desktop and what Nvidia and AMD achieve with discretes will narrow, making desktop discrete graphics more vulnerable.

Gill told Barrons that the next version of Sandy Bridge will offer a dramatic improvement in the relative power and a drop in the power consumption” versus discrete parts. He sees desktop discrete graphics as still being at risk and the “attach rates” for desktop GPUs are going down over time, not up. Notebook discrete graphics sales on the back of Sandy Bridge shipments is temporary, and that over time, notebook discrete graphics are also at risk in general, Gill said.

He pointed out that sales into China represent 60 per cent of Nvidia’s GPU revenue. But these are are at risk from fiscal tightening there and a cooling of consumer spending.


Nick Farell

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Comments  

 
+8 #1 Bl0bb3r 2011-08-03 11:40
So most trolls are from China?... gives Made in China a new meaning.
 
 
-7 #2 Warrior24_7 2011-08-03 13:37
"Gill downgraded the company even as it had a big jump in graphics processing unit (GPU) market share versus AMD". :eek: Wow!!! Somebody got their palm greased!
 
 
+3 #3 PorscheRacer14 2011-08-03 23:22
It's only going to get worse for nVIDIA as time goes on. They're etting squeezed from consoles, integrated graphics, mobile PC graphics and unless Tegra really changes things, it'll only stem the bleeding, not stop it.
 
 
+5 #4 dicobalt 2011-08-04 02:51
Quoting PorscheRacer14:
It's only going to get worse for nVIDIA as time goes on. They're etting squeezed from consoles, integrated graphics, mobile PC graphics and unless Tegra really changes things, it'll only stem the bleeding, not stop it.


I agree, Nvidia needs to swallow their pride and sign a licensing deal with Intel to get their GPUs integrated. They need to do it quick too, while their GPUs are still relevant.
 
 
+2 #5 bardenck 2011-08-04 03:48
Quoting dicobalt:
Quoting PorscheRacer14:
It's only going to get worse for nVIDIA as time goes on. They're etting squeezed from consoles, integrated graphics, mobile PC graphics and unless Tegra really changes things, it'll only stem the bleeding, not stop it.


I agree, Nvidia needs to swallow their pride and sign a licensing deal with Intel to get their GPUs integrated. They need to do it quick too, while their GPUs are still relevant.



+1 ... perfect post,while their gpu's are still relevant is the kicker, couldn't agree more.
 
 
-3 #6 SlickR 2011-08-04 11:04
I think Nvidia will decline in Q3, but make a comeback in Q4 if they release their new GPU architecture.
 
 
+1 #7 Bl0bb3r 2011-08-04 12:57
Quoting dicobalt:
I agree, Nvidia needs to swallow their pride and sign a licensing deal with Intel to get their GPUs integrated. They need to do it quick too, while their GPUs are still relevant.




I was thinking this ever since Intel announced 3D stacked die tech... if they can put GBs of memory on the same CPU die, they could also put a decent GPU like a GPGPU one from nvidia, except intel won't have it and after dear leader's anti-intel propaganda, you can wipe that thought.
 
 
+2 #8 Dribble 2011-08-04 13:25
Don't think adding an nvidia gpu to intel chips is going to help. It would take a lot of very close co-operation exchanging design know-how neither would like to give away. It would also take a lot of effort from both of them as their silicon works so differently. And at the end of it what's the most intel would pay nvidia - a few dollars a chip? Not going to happen unless intel take over nvidia.

Then there's the fact that ARM is slowly displacing x86 - nvidia would be much better off doing what they are doing and concentrating in ARM designs.
 
 
+1 #9 dicobalt 2011-08-04 15:35
Quoting Dribble:
It would take a lot of very close co-operation exchanging design know-how neither would like to give away.

Then there's the fact that ARM is slowly displacing x86 - nvidia would be much better off doing what they are doing and concentrating in ARM designs.


It would take cooperation, and that's something Nvidia always refuses to do. I'm sure Nvidia has turned down offers from Intel already. They could certainly do it because they are both technically capable companies. I wouldn't consider the technical challenges a real problem for Intel+Nvidia.

I don't buy into ARM replacing x86 though, that's assuming a whole lot about something that isn't even happening yet.
 
 
0 #10 Bl0bb3r 2011-08-04 20:20
Dribble, you're referring to something else, on die GPU. I was talking about a silicon interposer where the GPU die is bumped in place on the base of the CPU die. So instead of using separate packaging (BGA PCB's) and interconnects between the two chips, the CPU has an established PCIe x16 pin grid layout printed on the substrate on which the GPU gets planted... bump planted that is. Look here: http://semiaccurate.com/2010/12/29/intel-puts-gpu-memory-ivy-bridge/ the green part is the base of the die but extended to fit other dies, a base that only has to have a pin layout and then the GPU would be where the blue memory is... or along it if they want all of them. The interposer is what makes up those pins between the base and the upper die.
 

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