Analyst outfit Gartner has made the claim that PCs are dying and we will all be trying to write our novels on Apple tablets.
While such a prophecy is more terrifying that anything Daniel or St John could come up with, it is exactly the vision of St Steve Jobs. The market research firm said that tablets will not be "additive"but subtractive and instead of opting for that second PC and then maybe a tablet on top of that, consumers will opt for just the tablet.
George Shiffler, research director at Gartner said expects growing consumer enthusiasm for mobile PC alternatives, such as the iPad and other media tablets, to dramatically slow home mobile PC sales. "We once thought that mobile PC growth would continue to be sustained by consumers buying second and third mobile PCs as personal devices. However, we now believe that consumers are not only likely to forgo additional mobile PC buys but are also likely to extend the lifetimes of the mobile PCs they retain as they adopt media tablets and other mobile PC alternatives as their primary mobile device." This means that instead of buying a PC they will use the cash to buy a tablet or other mobile device or smartphone.
Gartner expects home mobile PCs to average less than 10 percent annual growth in mature markets from 2011 through 2015." It is also lowering its PC unit forecast for 2011 and 2012. Mobile PCs are fast dropping out of date. They are too heavy and and do not offer the all-day battery life, to substantiate their promise of real mobility. While that might be true, we do not think it is time to write off anything yet.
Tablets and smartphones are no where near capable of doing the things that a PC can do within the consumer market. Tablets are not good for typing out long emails, documents or books. Plugging in a keyboard negates the purpose of a tablet, if there is one. Smartphones are too small to do much else other than casually browse and send messages. Netbooks are impossible to type more than a sentence on before becoming frustrated.
Perhaps the development of PC TV's might be the factor that kills off the large scale adoption of the PC, but the tablet? Please!