Infromation Network analyst Robert Castellano ARM will
overtake Intel in the netbook and smartbook market by 2012, in case the
world doesn't come to an end by then.
Castellano is betting on the future of smartbooks, which are small,
ARM-based devices unable to run Windows in any of its desktop
incarnations. Basically this makes them even more useless than current
netbooks, which are pretty useless themselves to begin with.
He expects the smartbook market to be rather small, almost negligible
in 2009, but to expand rapidly in the future. By the end of 2009,
vendors are expected to ship 1.4 million ARM-based smartbooks, but
sales should rocket to 7.8 million units in 2010 and by 2012 they
should overtake Intel-based netbooks with 52.9 million shipped units.
Furthermore, Castellano doesn't expect any other processor architecture
to make a significant impact in the market.
The reason for the optimism stems from telecom subsidized sales of 3G
smartbooks. Due to their lower prices and superior mobility, smartbooks
are expected to get more telco sweetheart deals than proper netbooks.