40nm process
getting 60% to 80%
Claims that
the current TSMC 40nm process that is being used for the AMD/ATI Cypress family
is achieving yields of in the neighborhood of 40% don’t seem to have a shred of
truth. Our sources close to TSMC claim that actually the 40nm process that is
being used for the Cypress family is routinely achieving yields in the 60% to
80% range, which is actually confirmed by the fact that ATI is keeping product
in the pipeline and you can actually buy boards at retail.
Chip yields
seem to be the topic of discussion lately as the much larger Nvidia Fermi chip
is struggling with yield issues as our sources suggest that the actual yields
are as low as 20% and are not improving quickly according to sources close to
the fabs. With wafer starts costing about $5K the numbers suggest that each
chip would cost an astounding estimated $200 per chip which pegs the card with
a sticker price of about $600.
Those in the
know are claiming that Fermi despite the yield and thermal issues is only
about 20% faster than Cypress, while Hemlock smokes it. The combination of low yields, high thermals, and
marginally better performance than Cypress could be conspiring to place Nvida in
the position of having to release the card, but have to sell it at a loss till
they are able to address the issues in the next spin according to sources.
Because of the situation a mole we know is suggesting that Nvidia may limit the
sales of Fermi to consumers and instead use the chips for the Tesla and Quadro
products where prices and margins are much better.
All of the
talk of yields seems to be in some ways nothing more than a smoke screen to
shine the light off of the current situation to stall sales by promising
something that most consumers are likely going to be unable to buy. The moles
claim you will not need a pair of 3D glasses to watch this shake out in the
next few weeks.