By 2017 smartphones will dominate the market with a 78 percent share, while overall phone shipments will hit a whopping 2.19 billion units. One in three phones in 2017 will have speedy internet access, courtesy of 4G LTE.
The numbers sound very optimistic indeed and they appear to indicate that there’s still plenty of room for new brands and platforms. However, we’re not convinced. There are plenty of indications that the market is already overheating, including soft demand for many flagship devices and increasing market maturity.
The age of huge performance and feature leaps is over. Maturity results in longer product cycles, which are governed by telco two-year deals in most of the world. With more mature products, it is possible that even carriers will start offering compelling three-year plans, if not even longer ones in some markets.