The year 2010 is almost over. It was good, boring, exciting and interesting at the same time and we've seen some radical market changes that happened and some that got delayed to 2011 and beyond.
Let me start with notebooks. Some five years ago some crazy analyst predicted that notebook sales will exceed desktop sales. Fast forward to today and most people are buying notebooks as there is no need for desktops in many houses. The desktop market is shrinking.
In a few years from now, notebooks could see the same fate, as analysts now predict that combined sales of smart / super phones and tablets might be capable of dethroning the notebook dominance today. Of course, only time will tell.
This brings us to the most important delay od 2010, tablets. Poor Nvidia has the Tegra 2, cortex A9 chip ready for the good part of 2010 and Google just could not finish its Tablet operating systems. This didn't stop Samsung from launching its Android 2.2 (phone edition) 7-inch tablet that sold some 1.2 million units according to iSuppli, which is definitely a great start for tablet industry.
Google mobile phone operating systems are getting better and better, one revision of the time, and there is a huge market wating for Android based tablets.
Some will launch at CES in just a mattter of days and 2011 is supposed to be the year of tablets. Yes, this is a full year later than it was supposed to happen, but what can you do. Google was waiting, big companies were scared to go against Google, with samsung as exception and we can only hope that Honeycomb Android 3.0 can ship in March 2011 as many reported.
Tablets are taking over from netbooks, a slight spark in this computer industry that is radically shrinking as notebooks are so cheap and tablets are just cool to have. Intel might have some real issues with ARM dual and single core tablets that are supposed to overwhelm us in 2011.
Remember it all comes down to Google and its heavily delayed tablet operating system. Once that ships, tablet manufacturers might have a chance to fight with the iPad mania. Even with a great operating system and most likely better hardware for less money, the Android ARM community will have a tough job to fight with iPad one and two in 2011.
We are stuck with 40nm single and dual chips for tablets in 2011, but dual core phones show much better performance than single core ones, which gives us a hint that 2011 tablets might get much faster than the ones you’ve seen in 2010.
Still it will probably be 2012 until you see first 28nm tablets and phones and this is when it all becomes exciting as these chips will be way faster than the 40nm ones you see today.
Note for the Google Android team, it is all in your hands and Santa knows we've been good for the better part of 2010.