of desktop graphics, AMD will definitely be the first with 28nm with Nvidia coming a bit later. Rumour has it that both Nvidia and AMD won’t have these big cores until later, so we are expecting a pretty level playing ground.
Nvidia is telling its partners that Kepler will certainly wins over Southern Islands, but naturally company has to claim victory until it’s proven otherwise. TSMC is starting to ramp up 28nm production but the yields are not at great levels and this is one of the main reasons why Nvidia wants to come a bit later. For Nvidia, 28nm transition starts with notebook chips and introduction of Ivy Bridge in March / April 2012.
Both Nvidia and AMD partners claim that that Q4 2011 sales are great, and that many good games have boosted already sales. Launching a fancy 28nm graphics card and not being able to supply enough would simply kill seasonal sales, and this is definitely something that both AMD and Nvidia are trying to avoid.
As we have proven back in September Radeon HD 7000 series will be the name, you can refresh your memory here